Tropical Storm PETER

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED DEC 10 2003
 
THE CYCLONE IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  DVORAK
CONSTRAINTS KEEP THE WIND SPEED AT 45 KNOTS...BUT PETER HAS LIKELY
FALLEN BELOW STORM STRENGTH AND THE OFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS.  THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS REACHED THE OUTER
CIRCULATION OF PETER AND STRONG SHEAR IS EVIDENT.  THE 00Z GFS
MODEL SHOWS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT WITHIN 24
HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO
DISSIPATE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ABOUT
A MOSTLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AS THE
CYCLONE GETS SWEPT AWAY BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 23.4N  37.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 25.9N  36.6W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 29.4N  33.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     11/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
 
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