Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm PETER


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE DEC 09 2003
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PETER HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION
LEFT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS ARE FALLING AS FAST AS
THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS ALLOW.  PETER FELL THROUGH THE CRACKS OF THE
LAST TWO QUIKSCAT PASSES...SO THE INTENSITY IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. 
THE 45 KT ASSIGNED INTENSITY MAY BE GENEROUS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE
CYCLONE...AND THIS...COUPLED WITH DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES
UNDERNEATH...MAKES IT QUITE LIKELY THAT THE WEAKENING TREND WILL
CONTINUE.  PETER WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DODGE THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
ZONE...THE SAME ONE THAT ABSORBED ODETTE A COUPLE DAYS AGO...AND
PETER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THIS ZONE IN 24-36 HOURS. 
ALTERNATIVELY...PETER COULD DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE
REMNANT LOW IF THERE IS NO NEW DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/13.  PETER IS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK. 
 
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ODETTE AND PETER...THE 2003 TROPICAL CYCLONE
SEASON IS NOW THE LONGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON SINCE 1952...A
YEAR IN WHICH THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM FORMED ON FEBRUARY 2ND AND
THE LAST ONE DISSIPATED ON OCTOBER 28TH.  ANA BECAME THE FIRST
TROPICAL STORM OF 2003 BACK ON APRIL 21ST.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 22.9N  37.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 24.9N  36.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 28.1N  36.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     11/1200Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC