Tropical Storm PETER

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TROPICAL STORM PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE DEC 09 2003
 
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PETER HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION
LEFT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS ARE FALLING AS FAST AS
THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS ALLOW.  PETER FELL THROUGH THE CRACKS OF THE
LAST TWO QUIKSCAT PASSES...SO THE INTENSITY IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. 
THE 45 KT ASSIGNED INTENSITY MAY BE GENEROUS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE
CYCLONE...AND THIS...COUPLED WITH DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES
UNDERNEATH...MAKES IT QUITE LIKELY THAT THE WEAKENING TREND WILL
CONTINUE.  PETER WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DODGE THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
ZONE...THE SAME ONE THAT ABSORBED ODETTE A COUPLE DAYS AGO...AND
PETER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THIS ZONE IN 24-36 HOURS. 
ALTERNATIVELY...PETER COULD DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE
REMNANT LOW IF THERE IS NO NEW DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/13.  PETER IS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK. 
 
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ODETTE AND PETER...THE 2003 TROPICAL CYCLONE
SEASON IS NOW THE LONGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON SINCE 1952...A
YEAR IN WHICH THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM FORMED ON FEBRUARY 2ND AND
THE LAST ONE DISSIPATED ON OCTOBER 28TH.  ANA BECAME THE FIRST
TROPICAL STORM OF 2003 BACK ON APRIL 21ST.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 22.9N  37.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 24.9N  36.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 28.1N  36.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     11/1200Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE
 
 
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