Tropical Storm PETER

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TROPICAL STORM PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE DEC 09 2003
 
PETER CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH DEEP CONVECTION AND SEVERAL CYCLONIC CURVED BANDS.  IN
FACT...PETER MAY HAVE BEEN A HURRICANE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
EARLIER TODAY WHEN A BANDING-TYPE EYE WAS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
IMAGES. HOWEVER...THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISTINCT BUT THE CURRENT
CLOUD PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. 

PETER IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.  THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PETER SHOULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR LESS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND IT SHOULD THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY GLOBAL MODELS.    

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/2100Z 21.4N  36.8W    60 KT
 12HR VT     10/0600Z 23.0N  36.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 26.0N  35.3W    40 KT
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 29.3N  32.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     11/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
 
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