ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SUN DEC 07 2003 THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON NIGHTIME IMAGERY BUT IS LIKELY NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH ODETTE LACKS ORGANIZATION AND IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE CENTER. WINDS OF 30 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM NEAR SANTO DOMINGO FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND IT IS PRESUMED THAT HIGHER WINDS STILL EXIST ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM AROUND 1200 UTC. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/12...AND ODETTE APPEARS TO BE ACCELERATING AS EXPECTED. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE ALOFT ODETTE IS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE ACCELERATES ODETTE NORTHEASTWARD BUT AT VARYING SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FASTER GFS/GFDL AND THE SLOWER UKMET/NOGAPS SOLUTIONS. ODETTE WILL BE COMING UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE GOVERNED LARGELY BY HOW WELL THE SYSTEM REMAINS VERTICALLY COUPLED. ODETTE IS LIKELY TO BECOME ENTANGLED WITHIN THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS. MOST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH DURING THIS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 19.4N 70.2W 40 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 07/1800Z 21.2N 68.4W 40 KT...OVER WATER 24HR VT 08/0600Z 24.0N 65.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 08/1800Z 26.7N 60.4W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/0600Z 29.0N 55.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/0600Z 36.0N 44.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC