Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ODETTE


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI DEC 05 2003

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF ODETTE DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE STORM CONTINUES TO GENERATE BURSTS OF
CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE LATEST
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 995 MB.  A GPS DROPSONDE MEASURED A 43
KT SURFACE WIND...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. 
DROPSONDE DATA FROM BOTH THIS AIRCRAFT AND AN EARLIER NOAA RESEARCH
FLIGHT INDICATE ODETTE IS TILTED TOWARD THE EAST OR NORTHEAST WITH
HEIGHT...LIKELY DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 050/9.  SURFACE DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A STRONG AND COMPLEX WINTER STORM
SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA.  THIS STORM SHOULD STEER ODETTE GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD...AND ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE DIRECTION.  THERE IS
STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE SPEED...AS THE GFS AND AND UKMET ARE FASTER
WHILE THE GFDL AND GFDN ARE SLOWER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTION IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS
AND GUNA CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

WHILE ODETTE CURRENTLY HAS OUTFLOW EVEN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS UNDERCUTTING THE
OUTFLOW AND SHEARING THE CYCLONE.  THUS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE STORM REACHES HISPANIOLA.  PASSAGE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA SHOULD CAUSE ODETTE TO WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION...THEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT AS
WHATEVER MAY REMAIN OF THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. 
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ODETTE TO CAUSE SOME GALES AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE INTENSITY AND WIND
RADII FORECAST HAVE BEEN CHANGED AT 48 HR TO REFLECT THIS.

THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ODETTE AT THIS TIME IS THAT OF HEAVY RAINS
OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 15.3N  72.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 16.7N  71.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 19.0N  70.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 22.0N  67.9W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 27.5N  62.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     09/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC