Tropical Storm NICHOLAS
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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST WED OCT 22 2003
NICHOLAS IS STILL GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION...WHOSE TOPS ARE BEING
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS NOT
MUCH EVIDENCE OF CURVED BANDS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER
NICHOLAS A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED UNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 30
KT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...SO IT IS PRESUMED
THAT WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL OCCURRING IN SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT NICHOLAS...SO WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS.
LATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE
MOTION IS NOW ABOUT 325/10. NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN GRADUALLY
NORTHWARD...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AHEAD OF A LARGE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASED INITIAL MOTION.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0300Z 21.1N 55.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 22.5N 56.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 24.7N 56.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 24/1200Z 27.0N 57.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 25/0000Z...DISSIPATING
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