ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST WED OCT 22 2003 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF NICHOLAS IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED...WITH A PAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING ABOUT A COMMON CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION WERE DETERMINED FROM THE MEAN CENTER AND NOT THE CLOUD SWIRLS. THE OVERALL MOTION NOW APPEARS TO BE 315/4. NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. A 9Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED PLENTY OF 30 KT VECTORS AND A SINGLE 35 KT VECTOR IN CONVECTION-FREE AREAS...SUGGESTING THAT NICHOLAS IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN 35 KT. NICHOLAS TOOK A SHOT OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVERNIGHT THAT HAS DRIVEN THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER 100 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. WHILE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A LITTLE BIT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IT IS PROBABLY TOO LATE TO HELP NICHOLAS REGENERATE. WITH THE CIRCULATION ALREADY POORLY DEFINED...NICHOLAS MAY DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW...AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS. A CONTRARY VIEW IS PROVIDED BY THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS...WHICH HANG ON TO A CLOSED CIRCULATION FOR AT LEAST THREE DAYS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 19.1N 54.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 19.8N 54.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 21.6N 55.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 24/0000Z 24.0N 56.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED/ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC