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Tropical Storm NICHOLAS


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED OCT 22 2003
 
INCREASING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS TAKING A TOLL ON
NICHOLAS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EXPOSED WELL TO THE WEST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY.

THE EXPOSED CENTER IS EASY TO FIND EVEN IN THE DARK...AND NICHOLAS
IS A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 260/8.  DESPITE THIS SWERVE TO THE LEFT...THERE
IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LARGE AND POWERFUL
BAROCLINIC LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ARE MOVING EASTWARD
FROM THE U. S. EAST COAST.  THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TURN NICHOLAS
NORTHWESTWARD IN 12-24 HR AND NORTHWARD THEREAFTER AS SHOWN IN THE
FORECAST TRACK.  GUIDANCE IS NOT UNANIMOUS ON THIS...AS BAMM...
BAMS...AND LBAR FORECAST A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH NO TURN TO THE
NORTH.  RIGHT NOW THAT APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND
SCOPE OF THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WAS PARTLY SHIELDING NICHOLAS HAS
EITHER DISSIPATED OR PUSHED EAST OF THE STORM.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG...SO NICHOLAS SHOULD AT
LEAST GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC
SYSTEM IN 72-96 HR.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NOGAPS DOES NOT
FORECAST THAT ABSORBING...KEEPING NICHOLAS A SEPARATE SYSTEM
THROUGH 120 HR.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 18.4N  53.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 18.8N  55.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 20.3N  55.7W    30 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 22.3N  56.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 25.5N  56.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 32.0N  56.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     26/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC