ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2003 ALTHOUGH NICHOLAS IS SUPPOSED TO BE WEAKENING...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT IT HAS MAINTAINED AT LEAST MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND MAY HAVE EVEN RE-STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND HAS COME BACK NEAR OR OVER THE CENTER. THIS IS LIKELY A TEMPORARY EVENT...SINCE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. NICHOLAS' MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER TODAY...290/6. THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AS WELL. NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 18.4N 49.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 18.8N 50.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 22/0000Z 19.6N 51.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 22/1200Z 20.7N 52.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 23/0000Z 22.2N 53.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 24/0000Z 25.0N 54.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/0000Z 29.0N 53.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC