ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2003 NICHOLAS IS STILL PRODUCING INTERMITTENT CONVECTION...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CIRCULATION AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES OR BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE. ALTHOUGH NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BAROCLINIC FORCING COULD LEAD TO SOME NON-TROPICAL REGENERATION PRIOR TO ABSORPTION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/6. NICHOLAS IS CURRENTLY MOVING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MAJOR TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE OFF NORTH AMERICA INTO THE ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48-60 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE GFS/GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.2N 49.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 21/0600Z 18.5N 50.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 21/1800Z 19.0N 51.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 22/0600Z 19.9N 52.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 53.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/1800Z 24.0N 54.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1800Z 28.0N 54.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED/ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC