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Tropical Storm NICHOLAS


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2003
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KTS FROM TAFB AND AND 45 KTS
FROM AIR FORCE GLOBAL AND SAB.  SINCE THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER
RELATIVE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CRITICAL IN DETERMINING THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE AND THE CENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE EXPOSED AND
TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION...AS SEEN ON THE LATEST MICROWAVE
PASS.  THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45 KTS.  THE RELENTLESS SHEAR
CONTINUES...AND IF NICHOLAS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AS FORECAST...
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG AND INCREASING SHEAR IN STORE FOR
IT. THUS WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
 
STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE APPARENT
MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
MOTION BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
VARIATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE
SAME. NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BECOME INFLUENCED BY A MORE NORTHWARD
STEERING FLOW TO THE EAST OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BUT SLOWER IN THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 17.7N  47.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 17.9N  47.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 18.4N  48.4W    45 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 19.3N  49.2W    45 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 20.2N  50.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 22.0N  51.4W    40 KT
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 24.4N  52.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     25/0000Z 29.0N  52.0W    35 KT
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC