ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2003 ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE ON IR OR NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY...THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT THE NICHOLAS HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. ANALYSIS OF THE 21Z QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES STRONGLY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS NOT UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT RATHER IS NEAR OR BEYOND ITS SOUTHWEST EDGE. A MICROWAVE PASS...ALSO AT 21Z...IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS LOCATION. IF THIS ANALYSIS IS CORRECT...THEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS RE-ASSERTING ITSELF AND NICHOLAS IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS EARLIER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/8 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS...SUGGEST THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE FOR NICHOLAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND HOW THE CYCLONE RESPONDS TO THE SHEAR WILL DETERMINE BOTH THE INTENSITY AND THE TRACK. THE SHEAR SHOULD BE LOWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS NICHOLAS REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. HOWEVER... TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD STRONGER WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY TO EITHER TAKE A STRONGER SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...OR LEAVE A SHEARED SYSTEM BEHIND ON A MORE WESTERLY PATH. THE FORMER OPTION IS REPRESENTED BY THE GFDL...WHILE THE LATTER BY THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM AND THE GFS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT NICHOLAS WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN A WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH SHORT-TERM VARIATIONS IN THE SHEAR AND DEEP CONVECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BY VIRTUE OF THE SHIFT IN THE INITIAL POSITION...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST... ESPECIALLY BY DAYS 4 AND 5...IS NOT REAL HIGH. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 14.5N 47.8W 55 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 15.4N 48.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 16.4N 49.1W 60 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 17.2N 50.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 18.0N 51.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 19.0N 52.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 53.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 21.0N 54.0W 55 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC