ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2003 AN AIR FORCE PLANE FOUND A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PRETTY MUCH ON OUR TRACK...SO WE WILL CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER...MINDY'S PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES IS NOT A VERY TROPICAL ONE. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY IN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER... GIVING THE SYSTEM A FRONT-LIKE APPEARANCE. MAXIMUM WINDS OF 34 KT WERE REPORTED AT THE 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL...IN A VERY SMALL AREA IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THIS REDUCES TO ABOUT 27 KT AT THE SURFACE. STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN THAT TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...IF THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS NON-TROPICAL MUCH LONGER...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED SOONER. THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD STEER MINDY ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 26.1N 67.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 26.5N 66.0W 25 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 27.1N 63.4W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 15/0600Z 28.0N 61.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC