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Tropical Storm MINDY


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2003

AN AIR FORCE PLANE FOUND A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PRETTY
MUCH ON OUR TRACK...SO WE WILL CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME
BEING.  HOWEVER...MINDY'S PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES IS NOT A
VERY TROPICAL ONE.  THE DEEP CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY IN A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...
GIVING THE SYSTEM A FRONT-LIKE APPEARANCE.  MAXIMUM WINDS OF 34 KT
WERE REPORTED AT THE 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL...IN A VERY SMALL AREA IN
THE CONVECTIVE BAND WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THIS REDUCES TO
ABOUT 27 KT AT THE SURFACE.  STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN THAT TIME FRAME. 
HOWEVER...IF THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS NON-TROPICAL MUCH
LONGER...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED SOONER.

THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD STEER MINDY ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK
UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z 26.1N  67.7W    25 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 26.5N  66.0W    25 KT
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 27.1N  63.4W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 28.0N  61.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC