Tropical Storm MINDY

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2003
 
MINDY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...AS INDICATED BY THE LACK OF ANY
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CENTER. MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY SHEAR HAS DISPLACED THE CONVECTION MORE THAN 60 NMI EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND SATELITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED
ACCORDINGLY DOWN TO T1.5/25 KT. HOWEVER...AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS INDICATED 25 KT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS AND 35 KT
RAIN-CONTAMINATED WINDS...SO I HAVE DECIDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
AND KEEP MINDY AT A GENEROUS 30-KT INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/09. MINDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH
TAKES MINDY QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION AND
DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM NEAR BERMUDA IN 36-48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NOT INDICATING ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMPLIFICATION IN THE FLOW PATTERN TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF
MINDY...SO THE NOGAPS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED. THE REST OF THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON KEEPING MINDY MOVING
EASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM
MODELS...AND THE GFS MODEL.
 
MINDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AT LEAST 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION FROM OCCURRING. AFTER THAT...IF THE CYCLONE STILL
EXISTS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO WEAKEN AND IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT MINDY COULD REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STRENGTH AGAIN.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR MID-LEVEL AIR FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST WOULD LIKELY PREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM BECOMING
MUCH MORE THAN A 35-40 KT SYSTEM...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
THE THREAT TO BERMUDA HAS BEEN MINIMIZED SINCE MINDY REMAINS A WEAK
TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD...AND IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE ISLAND.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 25.7N  69.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 25.8N  68.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 25.9N  66.4W    30 KT
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 26.2N  64.4W    30 KT
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 26.9N  62.3W    30 KT
 72HR VT     16/0600Z 29.0N  58.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     17/0600Z 30.0N  55.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     18/0600Z 30.5N  51.0W    30 KT
 
 
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