ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2003 MINDY CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS ALMOST NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW AT 25 KTS. HOWEVER...AT 2100 UTC A SHIP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A 30 KT WIND FROM THE NORTH. ALSO...THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0132 UTC INDICATED 30 AND 35 KT RAIN CONTAMINATED WINDS IN THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS THE WINDS ARE LEFT AT 30 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. WITH THE LOSS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION THE STEERING SHOULD BE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. IN FACT...THE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS O90/06. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL NOT PICK-UP THE SYSTEM AND THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AND CONTINUE TOWARD THE EAST. IN THE PAST 12 HOURS THE TWO MODELS THAT HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR ARE THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAMS. THESE WILL BE USED FOR THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE AND THEY MOVE THE SYSTEM OFF TOWARD THE EAST AND IN THE LATER TIME PERIODS EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS TRACK IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ALSO SOMEWHAT SLOWER. THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST 20 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS COUNTER-ACTS THE 26 TO 28 DEG C WATER TEMPERATURES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER. THUS...SHIPS FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO BE 30 TO 35 KTS FOR 120 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL KEEPS THE SYSTEM INVARIANT AT 30 KTS. ALTHOUGH THIS TRACK LESSENS THE THREAT TO BERMUDA...ALL INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MINDY. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 25.7N 71.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 25.8N 70.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 25.9N 68.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 25.9N 66.8W 30 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 26.3N 64.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 27.2N 61.6W 30 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 28.7N 58.3W 30 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 31.0N 54.0W 30 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC