|
|
Tropical Storm MINDY
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2003
MINDY CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS ALMOST NO
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
NOW AT 25 KTS. HOWEVER...AT 2100 UTC A SHIP WELL TO THE WEST OF
THE CENTER REPORTED A 30 KT WIND FROM THE NORTH. ALSO...THE
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0132 UTC INDICATED 30 AND 35 KT RAIN CONTAMINATED
WINDS IN THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON
THIS THE WINDS ARE LEFT AT 30 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION THE STEERING SHOULD BE
INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. IN FACT...THE SYSTEM IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS O90/06. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
NOT PICK-UP THE SYSTEM AND THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AND CONTINUE TOWARD
THE EAST. IN THE PAST 12 HOURS THE TWO MODELS THAT HAVE SUGGESTED
THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR ARE THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAMS. THESE WILL BE
USED FOR THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE AND THEY MOVE THE SYSTEM OFF
TOWARD THE EAST AND IN THE LATER TIME PERIODS EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS
TRACK IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ALSO SOMEWHAT
SLOWER.
THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST 20 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM. THIS COUNTER-ACTS THE 26 TO 28 DEG C WATER TEMPERATURES
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER. THUS...SHIPS FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO
BE 30 TO 35 KTS FOR 120 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL KEEPS THE SYSTEM
INVARIANT AT 30 KTS.
ALTHOUGH THIS TRACK LESSENS THE THREAT TO BERMUDA...ALL INTERESTS IN
BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MINDY.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0300Z 25.7N 71.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 25.8N 70.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 25.9N 68.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 25.9N 66.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 26.3N 64.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 27.2N 61.6W 30 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 28.7N 58.3W 30 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 31.0N 54.0W 30 KT
NNNN
|
|
|
|
|
