ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2003 AS SUSPECTED EARLIER...MINDY NO LONGER HAS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND PEAK WINDS OF 32 KT AT 1500 FT AND A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE VORTEX. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...THE CONVECTION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX ANY TIME SOON...SO NO RE-INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED. HOWEVER...AS NOTED EARLIER....THESE SHEARED SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO SURPRISE US. INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE EAST OF NORTH...015/08. MINDY IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE TRACK MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGH WILL CARRY MINDY NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MINDY'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MINDY. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 25.8N 71.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 26.7N 70.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 27.7N 68.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 28.6N 66.8W 30 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 30.0N 64.0W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 15/1800Z 32.0N 58.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 16/1800Z 35.0N 52.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC