ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/10. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME...WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES FORCING A NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE TROUGH AND MINDY ARE FORECAST TO COMBINE BY 72 HOURS AFTER WHICH MINDY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE CENTER NEAR BERMUDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE LAST LEGS OF THIS MORNINGS RECONNAISSANCE MISSION RESULTED IN A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED OF 36 KNOTS...NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO GIVE A SURFACE WIND OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. BUT SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND THE WIND SPEED ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. THERE IS ABOUT 25 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING MINDY AND THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 23.2N 71.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 24.5N 71.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 26.5N 70.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 28.5N 68.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 32.0N 64.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 38.0N 56.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 15/1800Z 43.0N 47.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/1800Z 45.0N 36.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC