ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2003 ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE ...VERY DEEP CONVECTION OF CIRCULAR SHAPE HAS REGENERATED NEAR THE POSSIBLE SMALL CENTER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO THAT INDICATED THAT MINDY WAS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A TIGHT CIRCULATION. I AM NOT ABOUT TO MAKE ANY CHANGES IN TRACK OR INTENSITY SINCE A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA AT DAYBREAK. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS. MINDY HAS A CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT IN A DAY OR TWO AS THE SHEAR RELAXES AND THE CIRCULATION MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. MINDY APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING MINDY WILL FORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINDY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. NEVERTHERLESS...MINDY SHOULD BE MOVING NEAR BERMUDA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATE MONDAY. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST THE GUIDANCE BUT HEAVILY BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 21.7N 70.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 23.0N 71.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 25.0N 71.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 71.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 29.5N 68.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 36.5N 61.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 15/0600Z 42.5N 51.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/0600Z 47.0N 42.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC