Tropical Storm MINDY

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TROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2003
 
ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE
...VERY DEEP CONVECTION OF CIRCULAR SHAPE HAS REGENERATED NEAR THE
POSSIBLE SMALL CENTER.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH DATA FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO THAT INDICATED THAT MINDY
WAS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A TIGHT CIRCULATION. I AM NOT
ABOUT TO MAKE ANY CHANGES IN TRACK OR INTENSITY SINCE A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA AT DAYBREAK.  INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS. MINDY HAS A CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE BIT IN A DAY OR TWO AS THE SHEAR RELAXES AND THE CIRCULATION
MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA.
 
MINDY APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST
ABOUT 11 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING MINDY WILL FORCE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO INCREASE THE SHEAR
OVER THE CYCLONE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINDY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. NEVERTHERLESS...MINDY SHOULD BE MOVING NEAR
BERMUDA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATE MONDAY.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH MOST THE GUIDANCE BUT HEAVILY BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 21.7N  70.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 23.0N  71.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 25.0N  71.5W    45 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 27.0N  71.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 29.5N  68.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 36.5N  61.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 42.5N  51.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     16/0600Z 47.0N  42.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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