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Tropical Storm MINDY


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2003

CORRECT HEADERS AND BIN NUMBERS...
 
A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE WEATHER SYSTEM
NEAR THE NORTHEAST TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOOON.
IT REPORTED 1004 MB SURFACE PRESSURE AND A 49 KNOT-WIND SPEED ABOUT
40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT REPORT A
CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THE PROXIMITY OF LAND MAY HAVE
PREVENTED DOING SO.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NOT-VERY-IMPRESSIVE
CLOUD PATTERN...BUT A 1004 MB SURFACE PRESSURE IS THE MOTIVATION
FOR CALLING THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PRESENT.   THE
ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE ABOVE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
STORM TURNING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE GLOBAL
MODELS ALSO SHOW THE STORM MERGING WITH THIS TROUGH AND BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.
 
ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.
 
THE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 19.2N  69.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 20.2N  70.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 21.8N  71.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 24.0N  72.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 26.5N  71.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     13/1800Z 31.0N  67.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     14/1800Z 41.0N  55.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     15/1800Z 43.5N  45.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC