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Tropical Storm LARRY


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2003

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF LARRY IS BECOMING WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED.  
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.  THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
SYSTEM COULD REGENERATE...IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CAN MOVE
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  SOME OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST REGENERATION...HOWEVER THE LATEST GFDL
MODEL RUN DOES NOT...AND THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS ARE NOT VERY
EMPHATIC ABOUT REDEVELOPMENT EITHER.  THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE CYCLONE WILL BE TOO DISRUPTED BY IT PASSAGE OVER THE ISTHMUS
FOR REGENERATION TO OCCUR.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER LAND
TODAY.  EVEN THOUGH LARRY IS DISSIPATING...ITS REMNANTS ARE LIKELY
TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO.  THEREFORE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 17.3N  94.0W    20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 16.9N  94.1W    20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC