ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003 SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LARRY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO AND HAS ALSO WEAKENED DOWN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHILE A BAND OF DEEPER CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED 150-200 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED DESPITE BEING INLAND. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 205/03. LARRY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEAKEN... AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND. HOWEVER ...ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TAKES A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND A BETTER LOOKING 850-500 MB VORTICITY CENTER ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN 36-38 HOURS. I WOULD IMAGINE THAT INTERMITTENT CONVECTION WOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF LARRY...AND KEEP THE CIRCULATION FROM COMPLETELY SPINNING DOWN. AS SUCH...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME REGENERATION TO OCCUR...IF THE SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS LARRY OVER LAND DOWN TO 25 KT...THEN RE-INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 48 HOURS AND MAKES IT A 95-KT HURRICANE BY 96 HOURS NEAR MANZANILLO. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS NOT AS ROBUST AS THE GFDL...BUT IT ALSO REGENERATES LARRY BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 48 HOURS BUT PEAKS AT 73 KT IN 96-120 HOURS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS OF LESS THAN 5 KT. OF COURSE...ANY REGENERATION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THE REMANT CIRCULATION COMES BACK OVER WATER OF IF IT STAYS INLAND OVER MEXICO. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 17.9N 94.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 17.3N 94.1W 25 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 07/0000Z 16.6N 94.3W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 36HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC