ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003 LARRY IS A SMALL AND TENACIOUS TROPICAL STORM. THREE CONSECUTIVE FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS STILL OFFSHORE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE 996 MB WITH A FLIGHT LEVEL PEAK WIND OF 61 KNOTS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOWED A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS BUT LARRY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND. LARRY HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPANDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY GLOBAL MODELS. IF THE CIRCULATION SURVIVES THE HIGH TERRRAIN...LARRY COULD REDEVELOP ONCE IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER. IT SHOULD THEN MOVE WESTWARD AROUND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 18.4N 93.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 18.0N 93.5W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 06/0600Z 17.0N 93.5W 20 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 06/1800Z 16.0N 94.0W 20 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 07/0600Z 15.5N 94.5W 25 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 08/0600Z 15.0N 96.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 09/0600Z 15.0N 97.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER 120HR VT 10/0600Z 15.5N 100.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC