Tropical Storm LARRY
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TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003
LARRY DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. BUT SINCE
THE LAST AIRCRAFT INDICATED WINDS STILL NEAR 50 KNOTS SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL BE KEPT AT 50 KNOTS. THE
CENTER IS NOT FAR FROM LAND AND SHOULD BE INLAND IN 12 HOURS...BY
WHICH TIME SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING SHOULD HAVE OCCURRED...IF IT HAS
NOT ALREADY DONE SO.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 155/03. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
UNANIMOUS ABOUT MOVING LARRY ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE PACIFIC
OCEAN IN A DAY OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE
FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS
MUCH SO AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE WARM PACIFIC
WATERS AND UNDER LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT IT IS NOT KNOWN IF
LARRY WILL SURVIVE THE JOURNEY ACROSS MEXICO.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0300Z 18.5N 93.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 18.1N 93.7W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 06/0000Z 17.5N 94.1W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 06/1200Z 17.0N 94.5W 20 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 07/0000Z 16.5N 95.0W 20 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 08/0000Z 15.5N 96.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 09/0000Z 15.0N 97.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 10/0000Z 15.0N 99.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
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