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Tropical Storm LARRY


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PRESENTATION IS A LITTLE
BETTER TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST. THE MAXIMUM WIND AT FLIGHT LEVEL
REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SO FAR IS 46 KNOTS. I WAS
TEMPTED TO LOWER THE INTENSITY BUT BECAUSE THE PLANE HAS NOT
SAMPLED THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND...AND THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994 MB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS.  LARRY HAS A
CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT BEFORE THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO
FURTHER INTERACT WITH LAND.

LARRY HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
OR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING
THE COAST IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BRING
LARRY NORTHWARD.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0900Z 19.4N  94.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     04/1800Z 19.3N  94.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     05/0600Z 18.9N  94.1W    60 KT
 36HR VT     05/1800Z 18.5N  94.2W    60 KT
 48HR VT     06/0600Z 18.1N  94.3W    40 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     07/0600Z 17.8N  94.4W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     08/0600Z 17.6N  94.5W    20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     09/0600Z 17.0N  95.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC