ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003 THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE STORM TRAPPED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OUT BETWEEN SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...BUT MOST AGREE ON A VERY SLOW FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND ALSO AGREES WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. THERE WAS NO RECON TONIGHT AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES KEEP THE WIND SPEED AT 50 KNOTS. THE GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO ABOUT 60 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE LAST SEVERAL INFRARED IMAGES SHOW A RATHER SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND STRUCTURE WITH A SMALL BUT COLD CDO DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER AND AN IMPRESSIVE VERY COLD BANDING FEATURE FORMING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE AIRCRAFT COULD FIND A STRENGTHENING STORM BEFORE THE NEXT ADVISORY. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL WESTWARD COMPONENT OF DRIFT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...IT IS PRUDENT TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FROM VERACRUZ TO TUXPAN. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 19.8N 94.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 19.6N 94.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 19.3N 94.8W 60 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 19.0N 94.8W 60 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 18.8N 94.9W 60 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 18.5N 95.0W 45 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 08/0000Z 18.1N 95.2W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 09/0000Z 17.5N 95.5W 20 KT...INLAND NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC