Tropical Storm LARRY

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TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003
 
THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY WITH THE STORM TRAPPED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  THE
GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OUT BETWEEN SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION...BUT MOST AGREE ON A VERY SLOW FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND ALSO
AGREES WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

THERE WAS NO RECON TONIGHT AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES KEEP THE
WIND SPEED AT 50 KNOTS.  THE GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING TO ABOUT 60 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...THE LAST
SEVERAL INFRARED IMAGES SHOW A RATHER SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION AND STRUCTURE WITH A SMALL BUT COLD CDO DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTER AND AN IMPRESSIVE VERY COLD BANDING FEATURE FORMING
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE AIRCRAFT COULD
FIND A STRENGTHENING STORM BEFORE THE NEXT ADVISORY.

SINCE THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL WESTWARD COMPONENT OF DRIFT DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS...IT IS PRUDENT TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND HURRICANE WATCH FROM VERACRUZ TO TUXPAN.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 19.8N  94.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 19.6N  94.8W    60 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 19.3N  94.8W    60 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 19.0N  94.8W    60 KT
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 18.8N  94.9W    60 KT
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 18.5N  95.0W    45 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 18.1N  95.2W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     09/0000Z 17.5N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND
 
 
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