Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm LARRY


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003
 
THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY WITH THE STORM TRAPPED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  THE
GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OUT BETWEEN SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION...BUT MOST AGREE ON A VERY SLOW FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND ALSO
AGREES WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

THERE WAS NO RECON TONIGHT AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES KEEP THE
WIND SPEED AT 50 KNOTS.  THE GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING TO ABOUT 60 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...THE LAST
SEVERAL INFRARED IMAGES SHOW A RATHER SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION AND STRUCTURE WITH A SMALL BUT COLD CDO DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTER AND AN IMPRESSIVE VERY COLD BANDING FEATURE FORMING
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE AIRCRAFT COULD
FIND A STRENGTHENING STORM BEFORE THE NEXT ADVISORY.

SINCE THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL WESTWARD COMPONENT OF DRIFT DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS...IT IS PRUDENT TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND HURRICANE WATCH FROM VERACRUZ TO TUXPAN.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 19.8N  94.7W    50 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 19.6N  94.8W    60 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 19.3N  94.8W    60 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 19.0N  94.8W    60 KT
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 18.8N  94.9W    60 KT
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 18.5N  95.0W    45 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 18.1N  95.2W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     09/0000Z 17.5N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC