Tropical Storm LARRY

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TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003
 
THE LATEST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT LARRY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH.  THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN A LITTLE TO 997 MB...WHILE THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB WERE 54 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. 
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE WIND
FIELD SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER SINCE A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST
DEVELOPED THERE...SO STRONGER WINDS MAY YET BE FOUND.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 235/2.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...AS LARRY REMAINS TRAPPED IN AN AREA OF
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND IS LIKELY TO STAY THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT
3-5 DAYS.  MOST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A SLOW MOTION BETWEEN
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT. 
THIS MOTION SHOULD BE RATHER UNSTEADY...WITH JUMPS IN THE POSITION
OF THE CENTER SUCH AS THE ONE JUST SEEN ON THE ALVARADO MEXICO
RADAR.  ONE POSSIBLE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 23N91W.  IT IS TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHAT EFFECT...IF ANY...THIS MIGHT HAVE ON LARRY.

THE RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST NOTWITHSTANDING...LARRY CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND UNDER LIGHT/MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. 
THIS SHOULD SLOW...BUT LIKELY NOT STOP...DEVELOPMENT.  AS THE STORM
DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AN INCREASING PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER LAND...AND THIS SHOULD ACT AS AN
ADDITIONAL NEGATIVE FACTOR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
LARRY TO REACH 60 KT IN 48 HR AND MAINTAIN THAT INTENSITY UNTIL
LANDFALL.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 20.0N  94.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 19.7N  94.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 19.5N  94.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 19.3N  94.7W    55 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 19.0N  94.7W    60 KT
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 18.5N  94.7W    60 KT
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 18.0N  95.0W    35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     08/1200Z 17.5N  95.5W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
 
 
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