ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU OCT 02 2003 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THEW LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF LARRY HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE DAY. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 995 MB...WITH MAXIMUM 1500-FT WINDS OF 66 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. LARRY IS STRONGER THAN ITS SATELLITE SIGNATURE...AS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ONLY 35 KT. LARRY HAS DRIFTED ERRATICALLY SOUTHWARD SINCE YESTERDAY. HOW MUCH OF THIS IS ACTUAL MOTION AND HOW MUCH IS REFORMATION IS NOT CERTAIN. THE STORM REMAINS TRAPPED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN TWO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES...SO ANY MOTION WILL BE SLOW. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLOW MOTION BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST...SO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY WILL BE CHANGED TO THAT OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH THIS SLOW MOTION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR JUMPS IN THE POSITION FROM ADVISORY TO ADVISORY OR AIRCRAFT FIX TO AIRCRAFT FIX. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LARRY IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED...AND THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW THE STORM MAY INTERACT WITH THE MEXICAN COAST IN 24-48 HR...AND THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CURRENTLY CALL FOR LARRY TO BECOME A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE GFDL FORECASTS LARRY TO BECOME A HURRICANE AND THE POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER. IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 1500-FT WINDS OF 60 KT WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST...WHICH DECREASED DRASTICALLY TO 10-20 KT AT THE COAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 20.4N 93.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 20.1N 93.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 19.8N 93.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 19.5N 93.8W 60 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 19.2N 93.9W 60 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 18.5N 94.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 06/1800Z 17.5N 94.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 07/1800Z 16.5N 95.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC