ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2003 THE CENTER OF LARRY IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGES AND THE GIVEN POSITION COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 N MI. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE TROPICAL WITH BANDING FEATURES PRIMARLY TO THE SOUTH WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE MEASURED EARLIER. A SHIP IN THE AREA REPORTED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 46 KNOTS AT 03Z. THE OUTFLOW IS NOT RESTRICTED AT THIS TIME BUT LARRY LACKS AN INNER CORE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED FOLLOWING CONTINUITY. LARRY IS MEANDERING AND CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. MANY OTHER CYCLONES HAVE REMAINED STATIONARY IN THAT AREA IN THE PAST. BECAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE...LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS. IN FACT...SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT LARRY WILL DISSIPATE IN SITU BUT IN GENERAL THEY SUGGEST SLOW MOTIONS IN ALL DIRECTIONS. ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE WITH LARRY BUT MOST LIKELY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED AND IT COULD WEAKEN IF THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. NEVERTHERLESS...LARRY COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT COAST OF MEXICO AND STRONG WINDS TO THE OIL RIGS IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 21.0N 93.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 21.0N 93.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 21.0N 93.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 21.0N 93.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 04/0600Z 21.0N 93.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 05/0600Z 21.0N 94.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 06/0600Z 21.0N 94.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 07/0600Z 21.5N 95.0W 60 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC