| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Hurricane KATE (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2003

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES KATE HAS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.  COLD AIR
CLOUDS ARE NOW WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...AND THE REMAINING CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND
BECOME DISORGANIZED.  THIS TRANSITION IS SUPPORTED BY EXPERIMENTAL
CYCLONE PHASE DIAGNOSTICS.  KATE REMAINS QUITE VIGOROUS...AS THERE
HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE SHIP REPORTS OF 50 KT WINDS...AND A DRIFTING
BUOY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 980.1 MB AT 16Z.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 60 KT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS EXIST IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE RAPID MOTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 025/42.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
KATE SHOULD CONTINUE A RAPID MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEN...SOME DECELERATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TURNS EASTWARD
IN THE WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON KATE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC
AND AWIPS HEADER HSFAT1.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 49.3N  45.8W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 55.0N  41.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 59.5N  35.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 61.0N  27.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 61.0N  18.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     10/1800Z 61.0N   0.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN
 
 
NNNN