ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2003 KATE IS GRADUALLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES COLD AIR CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER...AND A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THAT AIR. HOWEVER...KATE IS STILL GENERATING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -60C...SO THE SYSTEM IS NOT YET DEAD AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN EXTRATROPICAL 65 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT. KATE SHOULD COMPLETELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 12-24 HR AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS A LARGE AND VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 030/38. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. KATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEN...SOME DECELERATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TURNS EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HR...BUT IS SIMILAR THEREAFTER. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 45.5N 48.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 08/0000Z 51.5N 43.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 08/1200Z 57.5N 37.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/0000Z 60.0N 31.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/1200Z 61.0N 21.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/1200Z 61.0N 4.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC