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Hurricane KATE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2003
 
KATE IS GRADUALLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS MORNING. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES COLD AIR CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER...AND A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THAT AIR.  HOWEVER...KATE IS
STILL GENERATING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -60C...SO
THE SYSTEM IS NOT YET DEAD AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN
EXTRATROPICAL 65 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60
KT.  KATE SHOULD COMPLETELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 12-24
HR AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS A LARGE AND VIGOROUS
EXTRATROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 030/38.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
KATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
THEN...SOME DECELERATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TURNS EASTWARD
IN THE WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO
THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HR...BUT IS
SIMILAR THEREAFTER.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/1500Z 45.5N  48.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 12HR VT     08/0000Z 51.5N  43.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     08/1200Z 57.5N  37.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     09/0000Z 60.0N  31.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     09/1200Z 61.0N  21.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     10/1200Z 61.0N   4.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN
 
 
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