ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2003 KATE IS STILL MAINTAINING ENOUGH OF A TROPICAL APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGES TO WARRANT AT LEAST ANOTHER ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE STILL HAS BANDS OF CONVECTION CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER... ALTHOUGH ON THE LARGER SCALE IT LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE. KATE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM BEING MAINTAINED AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST. FORWARD SPEED HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND KATE IS NOW HEADED NORTHEASTWARD...035/23. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. KATE...OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL COUNTERPART...SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEN...SOME DECELERATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE MAXIMUM IN THE WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT EAST OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST DAY OR SO...BUT FAIRLY SIMILAR THEREAFTER. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 41.5N 51.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 46.5N 47.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 08/0600Z 53.0N 40.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 08/1800Z 57.0N 34.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/0600Z 59.0N 25.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/0600Z 61.0N 8.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC