Hurricane KATE
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TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2003
KATE IS STILL MAINTAINING ENOUGH OF A TROPICAL APPEARANCE ON
SATELLITE IMAGES TO WARRANT AT LEAST ANOTHER ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE
STILL HAS BANDS OF CONVECTION CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...
ALTHOUGH ON THE LARGER SCALE IT LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A
FRONTAL ZONE. KATE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM BEING MAINTAINED
AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO ONLY
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
FORWARD SPEED HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND KATE IS NOW HEADED
NORTHEASTWARD...035/23. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
KATE...OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL COUNTERPART...SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEN...SOME DECELERATION IS
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE MAXIMUM IN THE WESTERLY
STEERING CURRENT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT EAST OF
THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST DAY OR SO...BUT
FAIRLY SIMILAR THEREAFTER.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0900Z 41.5N 51.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 46.5N 47.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 08/0600Z 53.0N 40.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 08/1800Z 57.0N 34.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 09/0600Z 59.0N 25.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 10/0600Z 61.0N 8.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 11/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN
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