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Hurricane KATE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2003

KATE IS STILL MAINTAINING ENOUGH OF A TROPICAL APPEARANCE ON
SATELLITE IMAGES TO WARRANT AT LEAST ANOTHER ADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE
STILL HAS BANDS OF CONVECTION CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...
ALTHOUGH ON THE LARGER SCALE IT LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A
FRONTAL ZONE.  KATE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. 
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM BEING MAINTAINED
AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO ONLY
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST.

FORWARD SPEED HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND KATE IS NOW HEADED
NORTHEASTWARD...035/23.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. 
KATE...OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL COUNTERPART...SHOULD CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEN...SOME DECELERATION IS
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE MAXIMUM IN THE WESTERLY
STEERING CURRENT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT EAST OF
THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST DAY OR SO...BUT
FAIRLY SIMILAR THEREAFTER.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0900Z 41.5N  51.2W    60 KT
 12HR VT     07/1800Z 46.5N  47.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     08/0600Z 53.0N  40.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     08/1800Z 57.0N  34.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     09/0600Z 59.0N  25.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     10/0600Z 61.0N   8.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     11/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN 
 
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC