ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2003 THE APPEARANCE OF KATE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS A LITTLE LESS TROPICAL. AN EYE IS STILL DISCERNIBLE...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS SPARSE AND LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 77 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WHILE KATE LOSES ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT A DAY OR LESS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHILE CROSSING THE NORTH ATLANTIC. KATE REMAINS ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK...NOW SLIGHTLY FASTER AT 020/21. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER KATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK TO THE EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GFS INITIALIZES THE SYSTEM ABOUT 60 N MI TO THE WEST AND STILL REMAINS THE LEFTMOST TRACK...THEREFORE THAT CLOSE OF A PASS TO NEWFOUNDLAND SEEMS LESS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SINCE ALL OF THE MODELS TURN KATE TO THE EAST A BIT LATER THAN IN PREVIOUS CYCLES. ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... TAKE KATE EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATE IN CASE A WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TAKES PLACE. FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 38.1N 54.4W 70 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 42.1N 52.3W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 07/1800Z 48.5N 47.4W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 08/0600Z 55.7N 40.7W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 08/1800Z 58.9N 33.1W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/1800Z 61.5N 16.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC