Hurricane KATE

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HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2003

THE APPEARANCE OF KATE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS A LITTLE LESS
TROPICAL. AN EYE IS STILL DISCERNIBLE...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS
SPARSE AND LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 77 KT FROM SAB
AND AFWA.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT.  GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WHILE KATE LOSES ITS TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...AND BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT A DAY OR
LESS.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHILE CROSSING THE
NORTH ATLANTIC.
 
KATE REMAINS ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK...NOW SLIGHTLY FASTER AT
020/21.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER KATE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST...INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK TO THE EAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE GFS INITIALIZES THE SYSTEM ABOUT 60 N MI TO THE
WEST AND STILL REMAINS THE LEFTMOST TRACK...THEREFORE THAT CLOSE OF
A PASS TO NEWFOUNDLAND SEEMS LESS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SINCE ALL OF THE
MODELS TURN KATE TO THE EAST A BIT LATER THAN IN PREVIOUS CYCLES.
 
ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... TAKE
KATE EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KATE IN CASE A WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TAKES
PLACE.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/2100Z 38.1N  54.4W    70 KT
 12HR VT     07/0600Z 42.1N  52.3W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     07/1800Z 48.5N  47.4W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     08/0600Z 55.7N  40.7W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     08/1800Z 58.9N  33.1W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     09/1800Z 61.5N  16.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     10/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN
 
 
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