ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2003 KATE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS FOR THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE HELD AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS KATE MOVES TOWARD HIGHER LATITUDES...AND KATE SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN A DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. THE HURRICANE IS ACCELERATING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. KATE SHOULD TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTIONS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SHOW A CONTINUED ACCELERATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER... SOME SLOWING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO ITS NORTH. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE GFS OR CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS. ALTHOUGH THE PROJECTED TRACK IS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATE IN CASE A WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TAKES PLACE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 34.2N 55.8W 80 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 37.2N 55.1W 70 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 42.3N 52.4W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 07/1800Z 49.0N 47.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 08/0600Z 56.0N 40.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/0600Z 62.0N 24.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/0600Z 61.0N 3.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 GMT