Hurricane KATE

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HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2003

KATE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS FOR THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE HELD AT 80 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS KATE MOVES TOWARD HIGHER
LATITUDES...AND KATE SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN A
DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MAINTAINED AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING.  THE
HURRICANE IS ACCELERATING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. 
KATE SHOULD TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTIONS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SHOW A
CONTINUED ACCELERATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...
SOME SLOWING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO ITS NORTH.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE GFS OR
CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS.

ALTHOUGH THE PROJECTED TRACK IS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...INTERESTS
THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATE IN CASE A WESTWARD
DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TAKES PLACE.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 34.2N  55.8W    80 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 37.2N  55.1W    70 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 42.3N  52.4W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 49.0N  47.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 56.0N  40.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 62.0N  24.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 61.0N   3.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN
 
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