Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane KATE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2003

KATE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS FOR THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE HELD AT 80 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS KATE MOVES TOWARD HIGHER
LATITUDES...AND KATE SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN A
DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MAINTAINED AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING.  THE
HURRICANE IS ACCELERATING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. 
KATE SHOULD TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTIONS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SHOW A
CONTINUED ACCELERATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...
SOME SLOWING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO ITS NORTH.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE GFS OR
CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS.

ALTHOUGH THE PROJECTED TRACK IS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...INTERESTS
THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATE IN CASE A WESTWARD
DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TAKES PLACE.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 34.2N  55.8W    80 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 37.2N  55.1W    70 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 42.3N  52.4W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 49.0N  47.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     08/0600Z 56.0N  40.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     09/0600Z 62.0N  24.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     10/0600Z 61.0N   3.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC