Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane KATE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003
 
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR
REASONING. KATE HAS MADE A SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD JOG...BUT THIS IS
BELIEVED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION AND A TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY...SO THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/10. KATE IS CAUGHT BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING
LARGE-SCALE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO
THE WEST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE KATE NORTHWARD
AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. 
 
THE INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT KATE. THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT HAS ERODED AND THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-COVERED. CONTINUED
SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AND BY 36 HOURS KATE WILL BE OVER COLD
WATER NORTH OF THE GULFSTREAM...AND ALSO LIKELY BECOMING ENTANGLED
WITH A COLD FRONT. FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BY 48
HOURS...AND PERHAPS EVEN BY 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 33.0N  56.1W    80 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 35.0N  55.8W    70 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 39.1N  54.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 44.3N  50.8W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 50.0N  44.4W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 59.0N  25.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 60.0N   5.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     11/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF THE GREENWICH MERIDIAN
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC