Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane KATE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003
 
DVORAK NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN...WITH CI NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM TAFB
AND 5.0 FROM SAB.  ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO
85 KT.  AFTER 24 HOURS WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL
RAPIDLY AND THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE.  COUNTERING THAT WILL BE AN
ACCELERATION TO 30-40 KT OF TRANSLATION AND EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR
THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND KEEPS THE CYCLONE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.  THE UKMET DOES HAVE A TRACK THAT IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
NEWFOUNDLAND...SO AN IMPACT THERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT YET.  AFTER
THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFS SOULTION. 
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KATE WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE INTO THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 31.2N  56.3W    85 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 32.5N  56.8W    80 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 35.4N  56.4W    75 KT
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 39.5N  54.5W    70 KT
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 45.0N  50.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 57.0N  32.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     09/1200Z 60.0N   7.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     10/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN
 
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC