Hurricane KATE

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED TO 280/07.  KATE IS NEARING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED IN
THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR QUITE SOME TIME.  KATE IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ITS
FORWARD SPEED AS IT ENTERS THE STRONG FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND AN
APPROACHING TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION THAT CONSTITUTES THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS PARTIALLY
ERODED ON THE WEST SIDE...PERHAPS FROM WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...
AND SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77/90 KNOTS FROM
SAB/TAFB.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS.  SLOW
WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH A FASTER RATE OF
WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS SSTS GET COLD AND VERTICAL SHEAR
INCREASES.  THE GFS MODEL SHOWS KATE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
NEAR GREAT BRITAIN IN 120 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 30.6N  55.1W   100 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 31.3N  56.3W    95 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 33.6N  57.2W    90 KT
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 37.1N  56.7W    85 KT
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 42.0N  54.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     08/0000Z 53.0N  43.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     09/0000Z 60.0N  25.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     10/0000Z 62.5N   5.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN