ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003 KATE CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS. KATE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AND THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 96 HOURS. THE EXPECTED TURN IS ALREADY BEGINNING AND KATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IT SHOULD THEN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND BY 72 HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN PORTION OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFDL HAS KATE PASSING JUST EAST OF EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 30.3N 52.2W 100 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 30.7N 54.0W 105 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 32.0N 56.0W 100 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 33.5N 57.0W 95 KT 48HR VT 06/0600Z 36.0N 57.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 07/0600Z 46.0N 53.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 08/0600Z 55.0N 40.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 09/0600Z 62.0N 16.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC