ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003 KATE CONTINUES TO HAVE A CLASSICAL HURRICANE STRUCTURE...WITH A WELL-DEFINED 20 NM WIDE EYE EMBEDDED IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM AFWA AND TAFB...AND 90 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100 KT...MAKING KATE A MAJOR HURRICANE. CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL MOTION NOW IS 275/10. KATE IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN STEERING IT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT SHOULD START TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN 12-24 HR. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN 24-36 HR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RECURVATURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST. ALL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCES NOW BEING HOW FAST KATE WILL MOVE AFTER TURNING NORTHWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FAST AND SLOW SOLUTIONS FOR THAT PART OF THE TRACK...AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KATE IS APPROACHING SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES...AND THESE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REVERSE THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TO WEAKENING IN 24-36 HR. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE FIRST 12 HR...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER THAT...KATE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL IT LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A 120 HR POINT HAS BEEN ADDED AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...IN THE ANTICIPATION THAT KATE WILL LAST LONGER AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 29.7N 49.7W 100 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 29.9N 51.5W 105 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 30.5N 53.6W 105 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 31.3N 55.4W 100 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 33.0N 56.0W 90 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 40.5N 56.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 52.5N 49.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 08/1800Z 61.0N 32.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC