Hurricane KATE

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HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003
 
KATE CONTINUES TO HAVE A CLASSICAL HURRICANE STRUCTURE...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED 20 NM WIDE EYE EMBEDDED IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM AFWA AND TAFB...AND
90 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON THIS AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100 KT...MAKING KATE A MAJOR
HURRICANE.  CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS
EXCEPT SOUTHEAST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION NOW IS 275/10.  KATE IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN
END OF THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN STEERING IT FOR THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT SHOULD START TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN
12-24 HR.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
IN 24-36 HR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RECURVATURE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTH-NORTHEAST.  ALL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO...WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCES NOW BEING HOW FAST KATE WILL
MOVE AFTER TURNING NORTHWARD.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FAST AND SLOW SOLUTIONS FOR THAT PART OF THE
TRACK...AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KATE IS APPROACHING SIGNIFICANT
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES...AND THESE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
REVERSE THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TO WEAKENING IN 24-36 HR.  THERE
IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE FIRST 12
HR...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  AFTER
THAT...KATE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL IT LOSES TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT A 120 HR POINT HAS BEEN ADDED AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...IN THE ANTICIPATION THAT KATE WILL LAST
LONGER AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 29.7N  49.7W   100 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 29.9N  51.5W   105 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 30.5N  53.6W   105 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 31.3N  55.4W   100 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 33.0N  56.0W    90 KT
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 40.5N  56.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 52.5N  49.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     08/1800Z 61.0N  32.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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