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Hurricane KATE (Text)

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HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH KATE
HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. THE EYE IS LARGE AND DISTINCT AND IT IS
EMBEDDED IN A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE INDICATING THAT THE WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR
A DAY OR TWO AND KATE IS HEADING FOR WARMER WATERS AS INDICATED BY
DRIFTING BUOYS. THEREFORE...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.

THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED AND KATE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST
OR SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT 10 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OT THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. KATE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AHEAD OF A LARGE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS..PRIMARILY THE
CONSENSUS GUNS AND GUNA. 

ONCE KATE MAKES THE NORTHWARD TURN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IT SHOULD
ACCELERATE AND GRADUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. KATE WILL EVENTUALLY 
BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. 

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 29.3N  47.8W    90 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 29.3N  49.5W    95 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 30.0N  52.0W   100 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 30.5N  54.5W   100 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 32.0N  56.0W    95 KT
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 37.5N  57.5W    85 KT
 96HR VT     07/0600Z 48.0N  52.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     08/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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