ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2003 KATE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A WELL-DEFINED 20 NM WIDE EYE AND COOLING CONVETIVE TOPS IN THE EYEWALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 240/8...ALTHOUGH RECENT IMAGES SUGGEST A MORE WESTERLY MOTION. KATE IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N46W. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HR. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER 48 HR AS KATE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERLIES AT THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN WHEN AND HOW FAST. THIS PART OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE SPEED-WISE BETWEEN THE FASTER UKMET AND THE SLOWER GFS...AND DIRECTION-WISE BETWEEN FARTHER WEST NOGAPS AND THE FARTHER EAST GFS AND UKMET. KATE IS WELL-ORGANIZED...OVER WARM WATER...AND IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE FAVORABLE CONDITION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT KATE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY SHEAR LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 48 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 30.0N 44.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 29.8N 45.7W 80 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 29.8N 48.0W 85 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 30.0N 50.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 30.5N 52.4W 85 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 32.5N 56.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 06/1200Z 36.5N 57.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 07/1200Z 41.0N 57.0W 65 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC