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Hurricane KATE


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2003
 
KATE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATING A WELL-DEFINED 20 NM WIDE EYE AND COOLING
CONVETIVE TOPS IN THE EYEWALL.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
77 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
75 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
POOR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 240/8...ALTHOUGH RECENT IMAGES SUGGEST A MORE
WESTERLY MOTION. KATE IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N46W.  THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH 48 HR.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS AS DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.  THE FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER 48 HR AS KATE IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERLIES AT THE WESTERN END OF THE
RIDGE.  ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN
WHEN AND HOW FAST.  THIS PART OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
COMPROMISE SPEED-WISE BETWEEN THE FASTER UKMET AND THE SLOWER
GFS...AND DIRECTION-WISE BETWEEN FARTHER WEST NOGAPS AND THE
FARTHER EAST GFS AND UKMET.

KATE IS WELL-ORGANIZED...OVER WARM WATER...AND IN A LIGHT-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE FAVORABLE CONDITION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS
FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE
THAT KATE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY SHEAR LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 48 HR.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 30.0N  44.1W    75 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 29.8N  45.7W    80 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 29.8N  48.0W    85 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 30.0N  50.3W    85 KT
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 30.5N  52.4W    85 KT
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 32.5N  56.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 36.5N  57.5W    75 KT
120HR VT     07/1200Z 41.0N  57.0W    65 KT
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC