Hurricane KATE

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HURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH A DISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A
ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 4.5
ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING THAT WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75
KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AND THE HURRICANE IS HEADING TOWARD WARMER WATERS. THEREFORE...
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING
COULD BEGIN.
 
KATE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE. AS A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE
ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW KATE TO
TURN GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS
AND THE CONSENSUS GUNS AND GUNA.  THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFDL TURNS
THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD SOONER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS RUN.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0900Z 30.1N  43.4W    75 KT
 12HR VT     02/1800Z 29.8N  45.5W    80 KT
 24HR VT     03/0600Z 29.8N  48.0W    80 KT
 36HR VT     03/1800Z 30.0N  50.0W    80 KT
 48HR VT     04/0600Z 30.5N  52.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     05/0600Z 32.5N  56.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     06/0600Z 36.0N  58.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     07/0600Z 40.0N  58.5W    70 KT
 
 
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